The Messy Road Ahead

March 25, 2023 The next phase in the war on inflation is likely to be messier than it has been so far. After highlighting in late October that all the bad news seemed to be taken as good news, the market has generally done well. As 2023 unfolds, there is real risk that economic pressures…

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Merry Christmas

December 22, 2022 Since my last post, the world has continued to glide into a slowdown. Markets are being impacted by higher rates, layoffs, inventory excesses, and political unrest. The variables, the confusion is well beyond anything that has been seen in the past 20 years, and it is probably going to get worse. My…

When Bad News Is Good

October 28, 2022 There is a lot of bad news. In fact, some of it is really bad. Good news though, it doesn't seem to be all that upsetting anymore. Markets tend to lead what is happening in the underlying economy, and over the past 10 months, worries about the myriad risks to the world…

Profits and Losses

October 21, 2022 Over time this space has been used to provide an unusual view of the economy for typical readers. Sometimes arcane information, but really the basis of good financial planning. During some recent downtime, I was contemplating the reasons why this information that I watch is considered so arcane. Why potential readers may…

That Was Awesome!

October 14, 2022 It is easy to get lulled into a false sense of understanding when trying to manage investment, but yesterday's financial markets were truly record setting. Lots of other outlets are reporting the enormity of the move, but the underlying issues are the focus here. To start though, a little bit of Chris…

A Dry Spell

October 11, 2022 The funny thing about idioms is that they get old, and people may not always understand them. This post was to begin with the idiom "Like a broken record", but then I realized that almost everyone reading this comes from the CD era. Not the cassette era or the 8-track era and…

A Normal Emergency

October 1, 2022 Over the past three quarters, the best advice to readers here has been to stand aside from markets and let the world of normal return from the frenzied search for returns that has become the investment world. That advice may have seemed inappropriate because it sounded so similar to the advice in…

Folly

September 29, 2022 Yesterday the stock markets around the world bounced. You might think, 'Phew!', but the realities of the marketplace are somewhat more complicated. Don't get excited. Over the past 48 hours, the mini-budget in the UK has caused a lot of turmoil, and unfortunately, the reaction of the UK central bank was a…

No Panic Yet

September 27, 2022 This is just a short post to highlight some issues regarding the current stock market rout. For those that are used to the pessimism that occurs here regularly, there is little end in sight. In the global scheme of things, investors are now perhaps 'anxious', perhaps going through some denial, but the…

A Recession is Coming

September 22, 2022 The Federal Reserve has lifted interest rates again and has reiterated that they will fight inflation by raising interest rates even more. More importantly, while chairman Powell worked hard to avoid saying the Fed intends to trigger a recession, he was clear that they will be targeting below trend growth before rates…