October 28, 2022 There is a lot of bad news. In fact, some of it is really bad. Good news though, it doesn't seem to be all that upsetting anymore. Markets tend to lead what is happening in the underlying economy, and over the past 10 months, worries about the myriad risks to the world… Continue reading When Bad News Is Good
Profits and Losses
October 21, 2022 Over time this space has been used to provide an unusual view of the economy for typical readers. Sometimes arcane information, but really the basis of good financial planning. During some recent downtime, I was contemplating the reasons why this information that I watch is considered so arcane. Why potential readers may… Continue reading Profits and Losses
That Was Awesome!
October 14, 2022 It is easy to get lulled into a false sense of understanding when trying to manage investment, but yesterday's financial markets were truly record setting. Lots of other outlets are reporting the enormity of the move, but the underlying issues are the focus here. To start though, a little bit of Chris… Continue reading That Was Awesome!
A Dry Spell
October 11, 2022 The funny thing about idioms is that they get old, and people may not always understand them. This post was to begin with the idiom "Like a broken record", but then I realized that almost everyone reading this comes from the CD era. Not the cassette era or the 8-track era and… Continue reading A Dry Spell
A Normal Emergency
October 1, 2022 Over the past three quarters, the best advice to readers here has been to stand aside from markets and let the world of normal return from the frenzied search for returns that has become the investment world. That advice may have seemed inappropriate because it sounded so similar to the advice in… Continue reading A Normal Emergency
Folly
September 29, 2022 Yesterday the stock markets around the world bounced. You might think, 'Phew!', but the realities of the marketplace are somewhat more complicated. Don't get excited. Over the past 48 hours, the mini-budget in the UK has caused a lot of turmoil, and unfortunately, the reaction of the UK central bank was a… Continue reading Folly
No Panic Yet
September 27, 2022 This is just a short post to highlight some issues regarding the current stock market rout. For those that are used to the pessimism that occurs here regularly, there is little end in sight. In the global scheme of things, investors are now perhaps 'anxious', perhaps going through some denial, but the… Continue reading No Panic Yet
A Recession is Coming
September 22, 2022 The Federal Reserve has lifted interest rates again and has reiterated that they will fight inflation by raising interest rates even more. More importantly, while chairman Powell worked hard to avoid saying the Fed intends to trigger a recession, he was clear that they will be targeting below trend growth before rates… Continue reading A Recession is Coming
It’s The Economy Stupid
September 14, 2022 James Carville quipped "It's the economy stupid" during a televised interview 30 years ago (1992) and is a key reason why George Bush Senior lost the election to Bill Clinton in 1992. Here we are 30 years later and the opposite appears to be happening. After presidents Bush Jr., Obama, and Trump… Continue reading It’s The Economy Stupid
Pain Ahead
August 27, 2022 The big gathering of federal reserve types at Jackson Hole took place at the end of the week, and the most important speech was delivered by Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve. For months this space has reiterated that the world has to stop throwing good money after bad. Put another… Continue reading Pain Ahead
Practical Advice 