Deflating Profits

August 3, 2022 While markets appear to be putting in a rally, there is very little consensus that the rally will be sustainable. Over the past few days there have been a wide variety of events that caused uncertainty, but markets continue to shrug them off as though there are flies hitting the windshield of…

A Little Higher

July 29, 2022 All indications are that this bounce will run higher. While there is a LOT of pessimism on the economy and it is just beginning to run its course, there is a LOT of positive activity in the equity and bond markets to suggest that there may be more upward moves. It is…

Turning Tides

July 22, 2022 In the world of boating, the predictability of tides and the range of tidal motion are well known. Tables are produced; now apps can be pulled up with data; the rise and fall is well understood. In the world of investment, the turning of the tide is completely obscure. Of course it…

Pain Or Gain

July 20, 2022 The past two weeks have been marked by a lot of hand wringing about the direction of the markets. Many financial market heavyweights have been recalculating their expectations for markets at year end and looking at a wide variety of metrics to come to terms with where we are and imagine where…

Bounce

July 6, 2022 As most know, this space is a bit pessimistic regarding the economy and markets, however recent market activity suggests that there could be a short term bottom forming. There are still so very many things that could go against the market that bullishness is not warranted, however the large downward moves are…

For Sale Signs Everywhere

July 3, 2022 The real estate world has been on fire for months now in the USA, and for years in Canada. The prices are crazy, the annual gains are inexplicable, and now it looks like the party may be coming to an end. It's still a bit early to tell, but there are insights…

Is It Safe Yet?

June 27, 2022 Since the last entry into these unusual views, the market has suffered another significant selloff, taking the S&P 500 to 3,650 before last week's bounce to 3,900. It is probably the case that most people reading this blog aren't 'chartists'. Those people that trade based off of 'pictures' on a chart or…

A Near Term Bottom?

June 3, 2022 The last entry on this blog referred to a world of divergences, and they continue unabated. One of the most interesting of those is that the market appears to be putting in a (another?) bottom, just as the economy appears to be weakening. For the nimble trader, there may be an opportunity…

A World of Divergences

May 18, 2022 Buying the Dip has been a fantastic route to investment success for decades. It may work again, but the odds are against it. Over the past few weeks I have spoken at length with investment professionals, private traders/investors, and family members, most of them not having a clue that I research and…

Never Better

May 16, 2022 The phrase 'never better' is often used to imply that things are as good as they can be, it simply fails to suggest the trajectory of the changes. Currently things are heading down and it may seem like things will not improve, but they will. This isn't to say that readers should…