June 27, 2022 Since the last entry into these unusual views, the market has suffered another significant selloff, taking the S&P 500 to 3,650 before last week's bounce to 3,900. It is probably the case that most people reading this blog aren't 'chartists'. Those people that trade based off of 'pictures' on a chart or… Continue reading Is It Safe Yet?
June 3, 2022 The last entry on this blog referred to a world of divergences, and they continue unabated. One of the most interesting of those is that the market appears to be putting in a (another?) bottom, just as the economy appears to be weakening. For the nimble trader, there may be an opportunity… Continue reading A Near Term Bottom?
May 18, 2022 Buying the Dip has been a fantastic route to investment success for decades. It may work again, but the odds are against it. Over the past few weeks I have spoken at length with investment professionals, private traders/investors, and family members, most of them not having a clue that I research and… Continue reading A World of Divergences
May 16, 2022 The phrase 'never better' is often used to imply that things are as good as they can be, it simply fails to suggest the trajectory of the changes. Currently things are heading down and it may seem like things will not improve, but they will. This isn't to say that readers should… Continue reading Never Better
May 3, 2022 In the 80's we had 'Tears are Not Enough', 'Do They Know It's Christmas' and 'We Are The World', to spur civilization to make the world a better place. Now 40 years later it doesn't seem to be working. It is easy to consider the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the cost… Continue reading It’s Not You . . . It’s Them
May 2, 2022 Markets are doing strange things. Too much money, chasing too few ideas, in a world where money can be moved easily, is leading to exceptional moves in the financial markets, housing markets, currency markets, debt markets, really any market. Warren Buffet spent the weekend railing against the 'casino' that has been created… Continue reading Cracks In the Foundation
April 26, 2022 There are many ways to put spare cash to work, and bullish investment houses have been sticking with the theme that a recession is avoidable. Of course bearish opinions are rampant at this point as well, declaring that markets are facing everything from a 'breather' to a very bad recession. The latest… Continue reading What’s It Worth
April 19th, 2022 One of the hallmarks of the pandemic response in most countries has been central banks holding interest rates unusually low, flooding the market with cash and making excessive spending possible without serious repercussions. This space has highlighted that the US could soon lose control of their interest rates, and this statement is… Continue reading Losing Control of Rates
April 11, 2022 Three themes have underpinned most of the ideas here, and all three of them have experienced pretty major upheaval over the past two weeks. Arguably, the most important is interest rates. This is followed by debt levels and finally equity markets. Interest rates have soared yet again over the past three weeks.… Continue reading Turmoil Is Underway
March 21, 2022 It has been over a month since this space has been updated, and the markets continue to be very volatile. On February 24th, Russia began their invasion and at that time the market had worked its way down to about 4,150 based on the fear of what would happen. Since then the… Continue reading Up? Down? What Now?