It’s The Economy Stupid

September 14, 2022 James Carville quipped "It's the economy stupid" during a televised interview 30 years ago (1992) and is a key reason why George Bush Senior lost the election to Bill Clinton in 1992. Here we are 30 years later and the opposite appears to be happening. After presidents Bush Jr., Obama, and Trump…

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Pain Ahead

August 27, 2022 The big gathering of federal reserve types at Jackson Hole took place at the end of the week, and the most important speech was delivered by Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve. For months this space has reiterated that the world has to stop throwing good money after bad. Put another…

Big Data

August 15, 2022 One of the revolutions of the internet age is the accumulation of information. Since digital computers were brought into common usage (about 60 years ago), the move towards manipulating a LOT of data has progressed onward. In the field of finance it has unleashed a multitude of benefits, and more than a…

Deflating Profits

August 3, 2022 While markets appear to be putting in a rally, there is very little consensus that the rally will be sustainable. Over the past few days there have been a wide variety of events that caused uncertainty, but markets continue to shrug them off as though there are flies hitting the windshield of…

A Little Higher

July 29, 2022 All indications are that this bounce will run higher. While there is a LOT of pessimism on the economy and it is just beginning to run its course, there is a LOT of positive activity in the equity and bond markets to suggest that there may be more upward moves. It is…

Turning Tides

July 22, 2022 In the world of boating, the predictability of tides and the range of tidal motion are well known. Tables are produced; now apps can be pulled up with data; the rise and fall is well understood. In the world of investment, the turning of the tide is completely obscure. Of course it…

Pain Or Gain

July 20, 2022 The past two weeks have been marked by a lot of hand wringing about the direction of the markets. Many financial market heavyweights have been recalculating their expectations for markets at year end and looking at a wide variety of metrics to come to terms with where we are and imagine where…

Bounce

July 6, 2022 As most know, this space is a bit pessimistic regarding the economy and markets, however recent market activity suggests that there could be a short term bottom forming. There are still so very many things that could go against the market that bullishness is not warranted, however the large downward moves are…

For Sale Signs Everywhere

July 3, 2022 The real estate world has been on fire for months now in the USA, and for years in Canada. The prices are crazy, the annual gains are inexplicable, and now it looks like the party may be coming to an end. It's still a bit early to tell, but there are insights…

Is It Safe Yet?

June 27, 2022 Since the last entry into these unusual views, the market has suffered another significant selloff, taking the S&P 500 to 3,650 before last week's bounce to 3,900. It is probably the case that most people reading this blog aren't 'chartists'. Those people that trade based off of 'pictures' on a chart or…